Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.019261 0.021867 0.024705 0.028026 0.031808 0.035982 0.040943
2025-03-30 0.014511 0.017917 0.021955 0.027099 0.033490 0.041184 0.051171
2025-04-06 0.012093 0.015802 0.020456 0.026738 0.035021 0.045600 0.060189
2025-04-13 0.010146 0.013880 0.018790 0.025736 0.035349 0.048236 0.066917
2025-04-20 0.009288 0.013227 0.018621 0.026576 0.038064 0.054138 0.078490
2025-04-27 0.008546 0.012614 0.018390 0.027230 0.040495 0.059784 0.090188
2025-05-04 0.007974 0.012161 0.018308 0.028039 0.043162 0.065944 0.103194
2025-05-11 0.007227 0.011356 0.017602 0.027802 0.044172 0.069643 0.112716
2025-05-18 0.006649 0.010742 0.017113 0.027824 0.045541 0.073961 0.123568
2025-05-25 0.006055 0.010040 0.016410 0.027412 0.046133 0.077036 0.132606
2025-06-01 0.005697 0.009684 0.016222 0.027815 0.048085 0.082481 0.146142
2025-06-08 0.005269 0.009169 0.015719 0.027622 0.048977 0.086169 0.156905
2025-06-15 0.005054 0.009011 0.015820 0.028513 0.051899 0.093738 0.175593
2025-06-22 0.004576 0.008344 0.014979 0.027644 0.051565 0.095455 0.183628
2025-06-29 0.004226 0.007874 0.014442 0.027272 0.052093 0.098762 0.194962
2025-07-06 0.003821 0.007268 0.013603 0.026249 0.051276 0.099435 0.201152
2025-07-13 0.003702 0.007190 0.013740 0.027106 0.054182 0.107535 0.223080
2025-07-20 0.003568 0.007069 0.013781 0.027774 0.056763 0.115211 0.244895
2025-07-27 0.003460 0.006991 0.013897 0.028599 0.059732 0.123926 0.269783
2025-08-03 0.003244 0.006675 0.013513 0.028357 0.060445 0.128017 0.285017
2025-08-10 0.003072 0.006437 0.013267 0.028380 0.061718 0.133391 0.303628
2025-08-17 0.002872 0.006121 0.012832 0.027960 0.061983 0.136598 0.317606
2025-08-24 0.002763 0.005992 0.012781 0.028371 0.064125 0.144132 0.342420